Updated Oct. 26, 2026: Brazil held its presidential runoff on Sunday, Oct. 25. This page now covers the result, the market reaction and what it means for the U.S.
Quick answer: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s runoff on Oct. 25, 2026, beating Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro with about 51.8% to 48.2% of valid votes, according to Brazil’s electoral court. Flávio had led the first round on Oct. 4, 47.03% to 45.16%. He says he won’t recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul it. Brazil’s currency and stock market fell sharply on Monday. Lula’s new term starts Jan. 5, 2027. For Americans, the biggest links are trade, tariffs and prices for Brazilian goods like coffee.
Here’s how the race unfolded, why markets reacted and what changes, or doesn’t, for the U.S.
Brazil’s 2026 election at a glance
| Item | Result |
|---|---|
| First round, Oct. 4 | Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16%, others 7.81% |
| Runoff, Oct. 25 | Lula about 51.8%, Bolsonaro about 48.2% |
| Margin | Roughly 4.4 million votes |
| Historic note | First time since 1989 a candidate won a runoff after trailing in the first round |
| Loser’s response | Flávio says he doesn’t recognize the result and will seek to annul it |
| New term begins | Jan. 5, 2027 |
Figures are from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) as reported by NPR, PBS and Brazilian media. Final certified totals may differ slightly.
Timeline of the race
| Date | What happened |
|---|---|
| Late 2025 | Former President Jair Bolsonaro, barred from running, hands the right’s campaign to his eldest son, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro |
| Summer 2026 | Flávio runs on crime, tax cuts and continuity with his father’s movement; polls show a tight race |
| Oct. 4 | First round: Flávio finishes first with 47.03%; Lula second with 45.16% |
| Oct. 5–7 | An early runoff poll shows Flávio ahead 53% to 47% |
| Oct. 25 | Runoff: Lula wins about 51.8% to 48.2%; voting is extended two hours in places, causing confusion |
| Oct. 26 | Brazil’s real and stocks drop sharply; Flávio disputes the result |
| Jan. 5, 2027 | Lula’s fourth term begins |
Who Flávio Bolsonaro is
Flávio, 45, is a senator from Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil from 2019 to 2022. Jair can’t run, so the Liberal Party picked Flávio to carry the movement.
His campaign leaned on public safety. He called for tougher crime laws and for labeling Brazil’s two biggest criminal gangs as terrorist groups. That message landed: a Quaest poll cited by CNN found 33% of Brazilians named violence as the country’s biggest problem.
He also proposed tax cuts and a big fiscal adjustment to lower borrowing costs. Economists, Reuters reported, questioned how detailed those plans were. Investors liked the direction, though, which is one reason markets bet on him.
Why the vote is disputed
On election day, a Supreme Court justice ordered voting extended by two hours in some places. The AP described chaotic scenes at polling stations after the late change. Flávio’s camp says it will take legal action and ask electoral courts to annul the runoff.
Brazil’s electronic voting system usually produces results within hours, and courts have rejected past challenges. Still, the dispute adds uncertainty until the result is certified and Lula is sworn in.
Also read: The Trump-Canada Trade War Explained
How markets reacted
Investors had priced in a Flávio win, expecting tighter government spending. When Lula won instead, they sold.
- The real: Brazil’s currency fell against the dollar on Monday, with drops of 8% or more reported. One report had the dollar near 5.60 reais.
- Stocks: The Ibovespa index fell about 10% at the open, which triggered a 30-minute trading halt.
- Why: Analysts described it as a repricing. Markets had bet on spending cuts under Flávio and now expect looser budgets under Lula.
If you own a Brazil fund or an emerging-markets fund, expect swings this week. Don’t panic-sell on one day’s move. Check how much of your portfolio is actually in Brazil first.
What it means for the U.S.
| Issue | Where things stand (Oct. 26, 2026) |
|---|---|
| U.S. tariffs on Brazil | A 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian goods took effect July 22, 2026 |
| Coffee, beef, orange juice | Exempt from that tariff, along with hundreds of other items |
| The old 40% tariff | Gone: the Supreme Court struck down tariffs under the emergency-powers law (IEEPA) on Feb. 20, 2026 |
| Relations with Washington | Lula has resisted U.S. pressure; President Trump had praised Flávio’s first-round lead |
For shoppers, the exemptions matter most. Brazil is the world’s biggest coffee exporter and a major beef supplier. Because those goods are exempt from the current tariff, the election result shouldn’t change your grocery bill right away. A weaker real can actually make Brazilian exports a bit cheaper in dollar terms.
Plain-English example (made-up numbers, for illustration): Say a U.S. importer buys Brazilian coffee priced at 50 reais a kilo. If the dollar buys 5 reais, that costs $10. If the real weakens and a dollar buys 5.6 reais, the same coffee costs about $8.93. Whether shoppers ever see that savings depends on world coffee prices, shipping and store markups, but a weaker real works in buyers’ favor.
The U.S. and Brazil by the numbers
| Measure | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. goods exports to Brazil | $49.1 billion | $54.4 billion |
| U.S. goods imports from Brazil | $42.3 billion | $39.9 billion |
| U.S. goods trade surplus | $6.8 billion | $14.4 billion |
Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Unlike most big trading partners, Brazil buys more from the U.S. than it sells, which is one reason Brazil pushed back hard on U.S. tariffs.
How Brazil’s elections work
- Voting is mandatory for literate citizens ages 18 to 70. Skipping it without an excuse brings a small fine.
- Electronic voting machines are used nationwide, which is why results usually come in within hours.
- Two rounds. If no presidential candidate wins more than half the valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff a few weeks later.
- The electoral court (TSE) runs elections, counts votes and rules on challenges.
What it means for your money
- Index fund investors: Brazil is a small slice of most U.S. retirement accounts. Emerging-markets funds hold some Brazilian stocks, but a one-day drop rarely moves a diversified 401(k) much.
- Brazil fund holders: Single-country funds can swing hard on political news. Decide based on your long-term plan, not Monday’s headlines.
- Travelers: A weaker real makes trips to Brazil cheaper for Americans paying in dollars.
- Shoppers: Coffee and beef remain exempt from the current U.S. tariff, so expect no election-driven price jump at the store.
What Lula’s win means for the Amazon
Lula has pledged to end illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030, and Brazil hosted the COP30 climate summit in Belém in November 2025. His win keeps that policy in place. A Bolsonaro government was expected to put more weight on farming and mining. For U.S. companies and investors focused on climate rules and supply chains, that difference matters.
Who decides what happens next
| Decision | Who makes it |
|---|---|
| Certifying the result | Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) |
| Ruling on Flávio’s challenge | Brazil’s electoral courts |
| U.S. tariffs on Brazil | The U.S. Trade Representative and President Trump |
| Brazil’s budget | Lula’s government and Brazil’s Congress, where the right remains strong |
What to watch
- Court rulings on Flávio’s request to annul the runoff.
- Lula’s economic team: Investors want signs of spending discipline.
- U.S.-Brazil trade talks: Any change to the 25% tariff or its exemptions.
- Jan. 5, 2027: Inauguration.
FAQ
Who won Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
President Lula da Silva won the Oct. 25 runoff with about 51.8% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, according to Brazil’s electoral court.
Did Flávio Bolsonaro concede?
No. He said he doesn’t recognize the result and will ask electoral courts to annul the runoff, citing a late extension of voting hours in some places.
Why did Brazil’s stock market fall after the election?
Investors had expected Flávio to win and cut government spending. Lula’s win led to a sharp sell-off in stocks and the real on Oct. 26.
Will the Brazil election change U.S. coffee prices?
Not right away. Coffee and beef are exempt from the current 25% U.S. tariff on Brazilian goods, and a weaker real can make Brazilian exports cheaper in dollars.
When does Lula’s new term begin?
Jan. 5, 2027. It will be his fourth term as Brazil’s president.
Bottom line
Lula came from behind to beat Flávio Bolsonaro, but the fight isn’t fully over: Flávio is challenging the result and markets are rattled. For Americans, the practical effects are small for now. Coffee and beef stay tariff-exempt, and the next big U.S. question is whether Washington changes its 25% tariff on other Brazilian goods.
Last reviewed: Oct. 26, 2026. We’ll update this page as courts rule on the challenge.
Sources: NPR (Oct. 25, 2026); PBS NewsHour / AP; MercoPress; Diário do Grande ABC: first-round count; Fortune: 25% tariff and exemptions; WilmerHale: Supreme Court IEEPA ruling.
Featured image: Brazil’s National Congress in Brasília. Photo: Agência Senado / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0; edited by Nexgen Headlines.
